SUMMARY

India's GDP growth for the fourth quarter of FY2024–25 is projected to be around 7%, driven by robust rural demand, increased government spending, and improved agricultural output. However, the full fiscal year growth is expected to settle at approximately 6.3%, slightly below earlier estimates.

Q4 FY2024–25 Growth Estimates

• Reuters projects 6.7% growth, citing stronger rural consumption and state expenditure, despite subdued private investment. 

• ICRA estimates 6.9% growth, supported by moderate industrial recovery and stable performance in services and agriculture. 

• Barclays forecasts 7.2% growth, attributing it to a surge in net indirect tax collections and improvements in the agriculture sector. 

Full-Year FY2024–25 Outlook

• The consensus among economists places the full-year GDP growth at around 6.3%, down from the government's earlier estimate of 6.5%. 

• Factors contributing to the moderated growth include global trade uncertainties, proposed U.S. tariffs affecting business sentiment, and persistent weakness in private sector investment. 

Economic Indicators

• Retail inflation eased to a near six-year low of 3.16% in April 2025.

• The Reserve Bank of India is expected to continue its mild rate-cutting cycle, with rates forecasted to drop to 5.50% by August. 

Overall, while India's economy shows signs of resilience, especially in rural and agricultural sectors, challenges such as global trade tensions and weak private investment continue to pose risks to sustained growth.

CLICK HERE FOR FULL NEWS