Overview 

In 2025, under President Donald Trump's administration, the United States has shown signs of warming relations with Pakistan while experiencing heightened tensions with India.

This shift is driven by a mix of strategic, economic, and geopolitical factors, including US efforts to secure military and counterterrorism advantages in South Asia, amid broader trade disputes and regional dynamics.

While some analysts view this as a pragmatic recalibration of US policy in the region, others see it as a transactional approach prioritizing short-term gains over long-term partnerships. This comes against a backdrop of recent India-Pakistan conflicts, such as the May 2025 missile and drone exchanges that raised nuclear fears, prompting US involvement in de-escalation efforts.

Key Reasons for US Closeness to Pakistan

1. Strategic Military and Geopolitical Access: The US is seeking closer military ties with Pakistan to position assets nearer to China and Iran, enhancing its regional influence. This includes potential access to Pakistani bases or logistics support, which aligns with US efforts to counter Chinese expansion in South Asia, such as through the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
   • Pakistan's location offers the US a counterbalance to India's growing assertiveness and provides leverage in Afghanistan and Central Asia.
2. Economic and Trade Incentives: A new trade agreement allows 15-20% tariffs on Pakistani exports to the US—the second-lowest among South Asian nations—boosting bilateral trade in sectors like textiles and agriculture.
   • This pivot from security-focused ties to economic cooperation includes openness to US imports like cotton, aiming to reduce Pakistan's reliance on China.
   • High-profile meetings, such as Trump's hosting of Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and Army Chief Asim Munir at the White House, underscore this economic thaw amid discussions on trade, security, and counterterrorism.
3. Counterterrorism and Regional Stability: Pakistan offers "transactional counterterrorism cooperation," including intelligence sharing and efforts to prevent India-Pakistan wars.
   • The US views Pakistan as a key player in stabilizing Afghanistan and countering jihadist groups, despite ongoing concerns about ties to militants like Lashkar-e-Taiba.
   • Trump's administration has emphasized Pakistan's role in de-escalating tensions, with the president claiming credit for ending the "unendable" India-Pakistan conflict as part of his "seven wars ended" narrative.
4. Pakistan as a More Amenable Partner: Unlike India, which is seen as a rising power pursuing independent policies, Pakistan is perceived as more "docile" or vassal-like, willing to align with US interests for aid and support. This instrumentalism reflects US priorities in a multipolar world, where Pakistan challenges India's "strategic monopoly" in US policymaking.

Reasons for US–India tensions

1. Trade Tariffs and Economic Disputes: Trump has imposed up to 50% tariffs on Indian exports, including pharmaceuticals (valued at $12.7 billion annually, 17% of US imports), in response to perceived unfair trade practices, oil deals with Russia, and high Indian tariffs on US goods. This has sparked anti-American sentiment in India and eroded trust, with negotiations stalled despite India's efforts to resolve issues.
2. Visa and Immigration Policies: Hikes in H-1B visa fees and restrictions have strained relations, affecting India's IT sector and exacerbating perceptions of US unreliability.
3. Geopolitical Divergences: India's close ties with Russia (e.g., oil imports) and its hedging strategy with China amid US tariffs have clashed with American priorities. The US has critiqued India's independent foreign policy, while India rejects US claims of mediating with Pakistan, insisting on bilateral resolutions.
4. Regional Rebalancing: Post-2025 India-Pakistan ceasefire, the US is rethinking its South Asia strategy, moving away from favoring India to avoid over-reliance and prevent escalation. This includes tacit support for Pakistan-Saudi defense pacts, which indirectly bolsters Pakistan's position.

Future Impact

This realignment risks long-term strains in US-India ties, potentially pushing India closer to Russia and China, forming alliances like RIC (Russia-India-China) or strengthening BRICS. However, some US voices, like Congressman Ami Bera, argue against equating Pakistan with a "rising India," emphasizing India's enduring strategic value.

Experts predict relative gains for Pakistan could spur US balancing in South Asia, but sustained improvements depend on addressing Pakistan's issues like debt to China ($9.5 billion) and human rights concerns. India, meanwhile, is focusing on self-reliance and diversified partnerships to navigate this "fractious" phase.