The Trade Policy Uncertainty (TPU) Index measures uncertainty related specifically to international trade policies, such as tariffs, trade wars, sanctions, or changes in trade agreements.
It indicates how uncertain businesses and investors feel about future trade rules.
The TPU index is based on the broader Economic Policy Uncertainty research framework developed by economists:
The TPU index is constructed mainly using:
More mentions = higher uncertainty.
TPU rises when there are events such as:
High TPU can cause:
The Global Economic Policy Uncertainty (GEPU) Index measures overall uncertainty in economic policies worldwide.
It includes uncertainty about:
The GEPU index is also developed by:
The index is created using three main components:
It aggregates data from multiple major economies around the world.
The GEPU index rises during major global shocks such as:
For example, GEPU surged during:
|
Feature |
TPU Index |
GEPU Index |
|
Scope |
Only trade policy uncertainty |
Overall economic policy uncertainty |
|
Focus |
Tariffs, trade agreements, sanctions |
Fiscal, monetary, regulatory, trade policies |
|
Coverage |
Trade-related news |
Global economic policy news |
|
Impact |
Affects global trade and supply chains |
Affects overall economic investment and growth |
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August 27 WHAT? From August 27, 2025, the US imposed a 50% tariff on Indian goods, hitting $48 billion exports. Sectors worst affected: Textiles & Apparel (USD 10.3 bn) Gems & Jewellery (USD 12 bn) Electrical & Mechanical Machinery (USD 9 bn) Plus: shrimp, leather, footwear, animal products, chemicals. Apparel sector faces a 30–31% tariff disadvantage compared to Bangladesh, Vietnam, Sri Lanka, Cambodia, Indonesia. Industry says this could drive India “out of the US...
July 11
June 02 WHAT? The RoDTEP scheme or Remission of Duties and Taxes on Exported Products scheme is a WTO-compliant export incentive launched by the Government of India in January 2021, to reimburse embedded taxes and duties that were not refunded under any other export scheme like GST refunds or duty drawback. The objective of the scheme is to make Indian exports globally competitive by neutralizing taxes and duties that exporters incur but are not rebated anywhere else in the tax system. It was launched and made...
May 28 SUMMARY Net FDI means the difference of FDI received in India and the FDI sent from India. India's net Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) experienced a significant decline of 96.5% in the fiscal year 2024–25, dropping to just $353 million from $10 billion the previous year, marking the lowest level on record. India received a gross FDI of $81 billion in FY25. Key Reasons for the Decline Increased Repatriation and Outward Investments: While gross FDI inflows rose to $81.1 billion, up...
April 29 COUNTERVAILING DUTY Countervailing duty (CVD) is a type of import duty which a government imposes on the imports to protect it’s domestic producers from the negative impact of subsidies being given by the exporting country to their exporters or producers. CVD is thus an import tax by the importing country on imported products to counterbalance undue subsidies. WHY? Foreign governments many times provide subsidies to their producers to make their products cheaper and boost their demand in other...
March 15 The GEPU Index tracks how uncertain businesses and investors are about government economic policies. When uncertainty is high, companies may delay investments, hiring, and expansion, affecting market stability. How is the GEPU Index Measured? Instead of surveys, the GEPU Index analyzes thousands of news articles worldwide, scanning for terms related to uncertainty, economy, and policy changes. If uncertainty-related terms appear frequently → Index rises (high uncertainty). If these terms are less frequent → Index...
January 04 WHAT? The Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) is an organization that focuses on providing high-quality and jargon-free research and insights to governments and industries on issues related to trade, technology, and investment from the perspective of emerging economies like India. GTRI aims to create a more inclusive, sustainable, and resilient global trade system. Key aspects of GTRI's mission include: Analyzing the impact of trade deals, such as Free Trade Agreements (FTAs), on the...
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